The Politics of the Census

Soon the questionnaire will arrive in the mail and you'll hear that familiar once-every-ten-year knock at the door. Census version 2010 is coming. You've heard the Census is important for your city, county, and state and that we all should be diligent to participate; this is certainly true. While it does impact many factors from federal appropriations to emergency response to national perception to even how we're seen on the world stage, the most important result of the Census is the apportionment or redistricting of voting boundaries for local, state, and federal elections.

Properly delineated voting districts ensure the concept of "one man, one vote," the equal protection clause. It is through these boundaries that all of the other aforementioned results of the Census and more take shape. In theory, every voting district, whether for city, county, state, or federal elections, should have an equal number of people located within each district thus ensuring equal representation. The only problem with that simple notion is that politicians are in charge of drawing these boundaries and when politicians are involved, the potential for gerrymandering exists.

By definition, gerrymandering is a form of redistricting where electoral districts are deliberately modified producing a contorted or unusual shape. Gerrymandering may be used to achieve desired electoral results for a particular party, or may be used to help or hinder a particular group of constituents, such as a political, racial, or other group. It is used most often in favor of ruling incumbents. This has been an evident result of the Democratic leadership in our state legislature for decades.

Take a look at the Jackson County House and Senate District maps and you'll see with your own eyes what I mean. Go to http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/county_house/jackson.pdf for the House map and http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/county_senate/jackson.pdf for the Senate map. On the House map, see District 111 (bottom, aqua color). It takes in South Pascagoula, grazes Gautier, and jumps in between Districts 112 and 113 to take in the outskirts of Ocean Springs. On the Senate map, District 47 (top left, blue color) dives in between Districts 51 and 52. What you don't see on the Senate map is that District 47 starts over in Pearl River County and meanders through Harrison and Stone counties before entering Jackson County. Oh, and if you keep reading, it'll be no surprise that Senate District 47 is held by a Democrat, Senator Ezell Lee.

According to the House and Senate reports from the 2000 Census, the ideal House District size is 23,317 with the ideal Senate District size being 54,705. Both reports allow for a maximum 5% deviation, with the highest deviation on the House side at 4.99% and 4.67% on the Senate. What's interesting about this is that the districts that traditionally vote for the more liberal candidate or are considered more independent (normally vote Democrat or a toss-up in the Presidential elections) see the most negative deviation which allows for an increased number of representatives from those areas.

Now, see the state House district map (http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html), the state Senate district map (http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_senate.html), and a map showing traditional voting trends (http://www.csc.ncsu.edu/faculty/healey/US_election/figs/MS.png) with Democrat in blue and Republican in red. Just for example, compare House Districts 5 (-4.8%), 9 (-4.9%), 11 (-4.9%), 26 (-4.9%), 29 (-4.9%) and 30 (-4.9%) to the trends map. There are others. Then compare Senate districts 11 (-3.9%), 16 (-4.6%), 24 (-4.4%), 26 (-3.2%), 32 (-3.9%), and 36 (-2.9%) to the trends map. See anything interesting? I would guess you do. And if you trend it throughout the state in both the House and Senate, it's interesting to note the deviation between regions (north, central, and south).

So what does all of this mean? With the Senate leadership having shown a willingness to work in a bipartisan spirit, the Senate Legislative Reapportionment Chairman Sen. Terry Burton(R) and Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant should seek to reverse the trends above and bring about more equalized representation. In the House, Speaker Billy McCoy (D) has shown no sign of working in a bipartisan spirit and as House Legislative Reapportionment Chair Rep. Tommy Reynolds (D) begins his work, you will see significant jockeying among Representatives and the House leadership in an effort to protect their perceived voting base and vulnerable Democrat members. This should be of no surprise given the way in which the House Speaker vote went down after the last election. It is widely known that one vote allowed Speaker McCoy to retain his chair, which brings us back to Jackson County.

Given the population shift from the coastal cities into the county since Hurricane Katrina, it's conceivable to believe that Senate District 47 could be taken out of Jackson County and Districts 51 and 52 could assume the electorate there. As for the House seats in Jackson County, it is plausible that the Democrat House leadership will seek to ensure that District 111, the seat that was a Republican stronghold for two decades and that was narrowly won by 11 votes by Democrat Rep. Brandon Jones (who cast that deciding Speaker vote mentioned earlier), remains in their corner, perhaps by significantly redistricting the boundaries to gain more like-minded voters. In addition, with the aforementioned population shift and the measures to protect Democrat members, the possibility of losing one House seat in Jackson County is a concern.

You've heard it said that all politics is local; that is indeed true here. As we look toward 2011 and the state elections, it is imperative that we participate in the 2010 Census and begin now to focus on continuing the progress we have made of putting true conservative leaders into state government, leaders that will be fiscally responsible, reduce our tax burden, protect our individual liberties, and advance Mississippi on the national and international stage through positive economic development. Republican in Mississippi hasn't always been the norm, but we're making strides to that end everyday.

And just for the record, I am of the opinion that the Census should only ask for the number in a household and if you are a legal American citizen, which means a little extra work for some but well worth the effort to get an accurate, legal accounting of our nation's citizens.

So make sure you get counted in the 2010 Census. No matter how frustrating it can be, stay involved in your government. After all, all politics is local.